Neutral Conditions Predicted For America’s Coming Winter In Long Range Forecast

America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its long-range winter forecast for the 2025–26 season.

Alas it’s not the powder bonanza we spend summers dreaming of, but it does offer promising signs for select regions across the U.S. and Canada. It’s also important to note that other local factors often override the big picture of El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific and its impact on the climate overall.

NOAA’s outlook points to a neutral ENSO phase—neither El Niño nor La Niña—which typically leads to more variable and less predictable weather patterns.

But this year’s forecast carries a few clear signals: above-average precipitation is expected across the northern Rockies, eastern Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, while below-normal snowfall is likely for the Southwest, including Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Colorado and Utah.

Ski resorts like Big Sky and Jackson Hole should therefore enjoy a strong season, with NOAA projecting higher-than-average snowfall. The Midwest also gets a nod, with Crystal Mountain, Mt. Bohemia, and Boyne Mountain likely to benefit from lake-effect snow and an active jet stream.

In Canada, Banff, Lake Louise, and Revelstoke could see solid early-season conditions thanks to Pacific storm activity and colder-than-average temperatures in the west. Resorts in British Columbia, including Whistler and Panorama, are expected to enjoy consistent snowpack, though not necessarily record-breaking totals.

NOAA predicts average snowfall for northern New England, including Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. While not expected to be a banner year, it’s a stable outlook for resorts like Stowe, Sugarloaf, and Bretton Woods. Back west Central Colorado and Utah—home to Aspen, Vail, and Park City—are also forecast to receive near-normal precipitation.

The forecast is less rosy for the Sierra Nevada and the southern Rockies. Resorts in Lake Tahoe, southern Utah, and New Mexico may face leaner snow totals, with warmer-than-average temperatures and fewer storm systems expected to track through the region.

In summary, while long-range forecasts are inherently uncertain, NOAA’s neutral winter outlook suggests a patchwork season—with some regions primed for powder days and others relying more heavily on snowmaking.